Base-rate expectations modulate the causal illusion
| dc.contributor.author | Blanco, Fernando | |
| dc.contributor.author | Matute, Helena | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-10-27T19:37:34Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-10-27T19:37:34Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2019-03-05 | |
| dc.date.updated | 2025-10-27T19:37:34Z | |
| dc.description.abstract | Previous research revealed that people’s judgments of causality between a target cause and an outcome in null contingency settings can be biased by various factors, leading to causal illusions (i.e., incorrectly reporting a causal relationship where there is none). In two experiments, we examined whether this causal illusion is sensitive to prior expectations about base-rates. Thus, we pretrained participants to expect either a high outcome base-rate (Experiment 1) or a low outcome base-rate (Experiment 2). This pretraining was followed by a standard contingency task in which the target cause and the outcome were not contingent with each other (i.e., there was no causal relation between them). Subsequent causal judgments were affected by the pretraining: When the outcome base-rate was expected to be high, the causal illusion was reduced, and the opposite was observed when the outcome base-rate was expected to be low. The results are discussed in the light of several explanatory accounts (associative and computational). A rational account of contingency learning based on the evidential value of information can predict our findings. | en |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Support for this research was provided by Grant PSI2016-78818-R from Agencia Estatal de Investigación of the Spanish Government (AEI) and European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) | en |
| dc.identifier.citation | Blanco, F., & Matute, H. (2019). Base-rate expectations modulate the causal illusion. PLoS ONE, 14(3). https://doi.org/10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0212615 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0212615 | |
| dc.identifier.eissn | 1932-6203 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14454/4112 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | |
| dc.publisher | Public Library of Science | |
| dc.rights | © 2019 Blanco, Matute | |
| dc.title | Base-rate expectations modulate the causal illusion | en |
| dc.type | journal article | |
| dcterms.accessRights | open access | |
| oaire.citation.issue | 3 | |
| oaire.citation.title | PLoS ONE | |
| oaire.citation.volume | 14 | |
| oaire.licenseCondition | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
| oaire.version | VoR |
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