Sizing for survival: building resilient off-grid LVDC PV-storage systems against long-return-period climate events

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dc.contributor.authorCastillo Calzadilla, Tony
dc.contributor.authorMacarulla, Ana María
dc.contributor.authorOlivares-Rodríguez, Cristian
dc.contributor.authorBorges Hernández, Cruz E.
dc.contributor.authorOlías Ruiz, Emilio
dc.date.accessioned2026-10-06T14:37:15Z
dc.date.available2026-10-06T14:37:15Z
dc.date.issued2026-08
dc.date.updated2026-10-06T14:37:15Z
dc.description.abstractThe increasing severity of extreme weather events demands enhanced resilience in off-grid photovoltaic and energy storage systems. This study aims to integrate quantitative risk analysis into the system sizing process to quantify and mitigate the probability of operational failure under long-return-period weather extremes, under the hypothesis that risk-based sizing can improve reliability without disproportionate cost escalation. A surrogate model is constructed from real and synthetic performance data to efficiently explore the design space and identify a Pareto frontier of robust system configurations. A Monte Carlo simulation is then applied to a case-study building in Bilbao, evaluating 100 candidate configurations against 100 bootstrapped weather patterns, representing 120 years of historical and projected climate data. The results show that fewer than 25% of the investigated systems maintain continuous operation under the most extreme conditions considered. The most cost-effective configuration achieving 100% reliability for a 100-year return period event combines an 80% oversized photovoltaic array with a 20% undersized storage system. These findings provide actionable sizing guidelines for resilient off-grid DC systems and underscore the significant economic trade-offs associated with designing for full climatic reliability in future applications and standards development.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was partially supported by the Universidad de La Laguna through the project ‘‘Microredes Renovables Dinámicas para el Autoconsumo: Hacia la Democratización Energética e Inteligente (MIREDA),’’ accounting file No. 2026/0000636, under the 2025 Research Plan for Early-Career Researchersen
dc.identifier.citationCastillo-Calzadilla, Macarulla, Olivares-Rodríguez, Borges, & Ruiz, E. O. (2026). Sizing for survival: building resilient off-grid LVDC PV-storage systems against long-return-period climate events. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 92. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SETA.2026.105166
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/J.SETA.2026.105166
dc.identifier.issn2213-1388
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14454/6746
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd
dc.rights© 2026 The Authors
dc.subject.otherClimate risk simulation
dc.subject.otherHybrid system
dc.subject.otherLVDC microgrid
dc.subject.otherPareto frontier
dc.subject.otherRisk-analysis
dc.subject.otherSystem optimisation
dc.titleSizing for survival: building resilient off-grid LVDC PV-storage systems against long-return-period climate eventsen
dc.typejournal article
dcterms.accessRightsopen access
oaire.citation.titleSustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments
oaire.citation.volume92
oaire.licenseConditionhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
oaire.versionVoR
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