Examinando por Autor "Aguayo Mendoza, Armando"

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    Causal modelling to quantitatively analyse people’s everyday decisions regarding energy consumption and their reactions to interventions
    (Universidad de Deusto, 2024-12-17) Aguayo Mendoza, Armando; Borges Hernández, Cruz E.; Casado Mansilla, Diego
    The goal of this research is to mitigate the effects of climate change by refining energy systems modelling (ESM) to obtain a more nuanced description of demand drivers, with a specific focus on residential energy consumption. The approach involves several key strategies: applying novel causal models to dissect human decision-making processes in energy consumption, particularly in the areas of mobility, flexibility, building (heating and cooling), and appliance use; developing innovative methods for forecasting energy loads and assessing the impact of policy changes; and deepening understanding of household energy consumption patterns, with an emphasis on factors influencing behavioural changes toward energy-efficient practices. The WHY project, which has generated essential information on factors affecting household investment decisions in the current energy transition context, is a central element of this effort. Using a scenario-based methodology adapted from the Delphi method, the project has gathered expertise on future energy transition scenarios in four key areas. Through a unique co-creation activity, based on self-determination theory, 32 determinants of investment decision-making were identified and systematically categorised into a taxonomy of 32 factors. This taxonomy was tested through a survey of more than 1,700 people in the EU and Latin America to determine how these determinants are distributed across the target population. In addition, a cross-sectoral survey was conducted, validating archetypes and prioritising factors within the energy transition, using fictitious scenarios. This survey played a key role in characterising the archetypes of the European population and identifying behavioural clusters, thus enriching our understanding of investment archetypes. Advanced AI techniques, such as clustering and Monte Carlo simulations, were employed to discern deterministic clusters, leading to the emergence of new archetypes, such as "the activist". These clusters, representing various investment profiles, were further detailed through "person descriptions," which facilitated a deeper understanding of decision-making behaviours and underlying needs. The results, including the datasets, have been made public. The final stage of this research was to generate causal models for each investment profile, using the stages of change of the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) to categorize each determinant. Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) were used to conceptualise the causal relationships between the influencing factors, providing essential information for shaping energy policies. These DAGs enable targeted interventions on priority factors, thus streamlining decision-making processes. As a result, they form the basis for developing customised intervention strategies tailored to various types of individuals and residents in different sectors, paving the way for effective and sustainable energy transition initiatives.
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    Climate change from B to Z: a cross-generational perception study in Spain
    (Frontiers Media SA, 2025) Divasson Jaureguibarria, Asier; Aguayo Mendoza, Armando; Quesada Granja, Carlos; Casado Mansilla, Diego; Borges Hernández, Cruz E.
    In the context of increasing climate concerns, this study explores generational perceptions and responses to potential climate-induced crises through a workshop and survey methodology. The aim of this study is to understand how different age groups view and react to extreme climate scenarios and evaluate their proposed actions and attitudes toward climate change mitigation. This study investigates generational perceptions and responses to climate change through a dual-format workshop and survey, conducted both in person and online. The methodological approach involved presenting respondents with a range of apocalyptic scenarios resulting from climate change, including electricity shortages, reduced food production, fuel scarcity, inadequate home heating, drought, and raw material shortages. These scenarios aimed to assess respondents’ awareness, concern, and proposed actions in response to potential future crises. The survey, administered via the Prolific platform, and workshops, held at the “Zientzia Azoka” science fair and online, gathered data from 153 participants across four generational cohorts, namely, Baby Boomers, Generation X (Gen X), Millennials, and Generation Z (Gen Z). The analysis revealed distinct generational differences in attitudes toward societal responsibility and action. Baby Boomers emphasized community responsibility over formal regulations, showing a preference for moral and ethical accountability rather than legislative action. Generation X displayed balanced responses, with tendencies toward valuing education and long-term stability. Millennials were more likely to emphasize the role of authorities and formal governance in addressing societal issues, reflecting their reliance on structured systems. In contrast, Generation Z showed a strong inclination to hold companies accountable, often associating responsibility with corporate entities, and were more vocal about behavioral changes and restrictions to drive progress. The study underscores significant generational differences in climate change perceptions and actions, highlighting a trend toward increasing demand for climate action and growing distrust in institutions. These insights suggest the need for inclusive, generationally tailored climate policies with a focus on education and systemic change. Future research should explore the relationship between sustainable consumption and economic vulnerability, addressing how financial constraints impact individuals’ ability to adopt sustainable practices
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    Cross-generational perceptions on climate change: resolutive insights from youth and elder
    (Universidad del País Vasco = Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea, 2024) Divasson Jaureguibarria, Asier; Quesada Granja, Carlos; Casado Mansilla, Diego; Cubillo Eguizabal, Iker; Aguayo Mendoza, Armando; Borges Hernández, Cruz E.
    In a world increasingly dominated by conversations about climate change, this research delves deeper, exploring the disconnect between widespread awareness and the implementation of concrete actions to mitigate global warming and adapt to the energy transition. The study investigates this gap by focusing on the concerns of two distinct demographic groups: teenagers and adults. Conceived during the Zientzia Azoka event and developed through other events and sessions, the project actively engaged over 131 participants in a series of workshops. These participants spanned various age groups: 16 individuals under the age of 18, 110 adults between 18 and 65 years old, and 5 adults over 65 years old. The workshops employed qualitative methods, presenting participants with a range of potential climate crisis scenarios encompassing environmental challenges, energy shortages, and mobility restrictions. These scenarios explored situations such as insufficient renewable energy development leading to electricity shortages, extreme weather events causing food scarcity, and disruptions to travel due to fuel shortages. Participants’ responses to these scenarios were then subjected to a process of semi-quantification, enabling a more nuanced analysis of their concerns. The analysis revealed not only a clear awareness of these impending challenges among both teenagers and adults, but also a recognition of the substantial barriers hindering proactive solutions. These barriers encompassed economic constraints, a perceived lack of general awareness about the gravity of the situation, and the ever-evolving social landscape shaped by recent global events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. However, amidst these anxieties, a glimmer of hope emerged. Participants identified a potential shift in societal behavior, possibly driven by these very crises. Thematic analysis of their responses revealed a strong emphasis on the crucial role of sufficiency in mitigating climate change. This highlights the importance of reducing consumption and waste rather than solely relying on technological advancements as the solution. Additionally, peer influence was recognized as a significant force in shaping attitudes and behaviors, suggesting a powerful avenue for promoting positive change. The political dimension of climate action also came into sharp focus. Participants demonstrated a sophisticated understanding of the complexities surrounding political processes and the challenges they present. They emphasized the need for clear and effective communication from political leaders, while acknowledging concerns about political motivations and the influence of special interest groups. This underscores the intricate relationship between politics, media, and public perception, highlighting the need for a multi-faceted approach to climate communication.
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    Understanding the factors that affect households' investment decisions required by the energy transition
    (Public Library of Science, 2024-03) Aguayo Mendoza, Armando; Irizar Arrieta, Ane; Casado Mansilla, Diego; Borges Hernández, Cruz E.
    In energy systems' economic models, people's behaviour is often underestimated, and they are generally unaware of how habits impact energy efficiency. Improving efficiency is challenging, and recommendations alone may not be sufficient. Changing behaviour requires understanding the direct impact of needs and habits on energy efficiency. This research introduces a methodology that retrieves human expert knowledge from four key aspects of the current energy transition: everyday appliances, buildings, mobility, flexibility, and energy efficiency. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and human behaviour, gaining a deeper understanding of the links among the factors that drive final energy consumers to change habits through the adoption of energy-saving measures. Working in collaboration with expert panels, this study provides a methodology for extracting expert human knowledge based on a set of future energy transition scenarios aligned with the achievement of the Paris Agreement, a taxonomy of 32 factors that have a strong influence on households' investment decisions, and the results of a survey that characterises the European population through the 32-factor taxonomy and some socioeconomic conditions. In addition, the survey included a sample of the Latin American population to analyse how socioeconomic conditions (region, education, gender, etc.) influence the prioritisation of these factors. We discuss the high priority given to competence and autonomy over financial factors by inhabitants of the European Union residential sector. We provide an analysis of the factors through which other similar projects are focused and on which we converge. In addition, we contribute by presenting the hierarchy of priorities assigned by people. This highlights the importance for policymakers to take these aspects seriously when implementing energy policy interventions that go beyond purely financial measures and fiscal incentives