Eguizabal, MarkelGaray Martínez, RobertoFlores-Abascal, Iván2025-07-222025-07-222022-10-25Eguizabal, M., Garay-Martinez, R., & Flores-Abascal, I. (2022). Simplified model for the short-term forecasting of heat loads in buildings. Energy Reports, 8, 79-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EGYR.2022.10.22410.1016/J.EGYR.2022.10.224https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14454/3267A data-driven model is used to predict one-hour ahead heat loads based on present and recent history of weather and heat loads. A computationally inexpensive method is built to deliver load forecasting based on existing data quality and resolution from smart meters. Optimal model formulation is discussed and optimized at 4-hour historical values. The model is trained and tested against synthetic data from a building energy simulation, resulting in absolute error <4% and R2 values in the range of 0.92 to 0.94.eng© 2022 The Author(s)BuildingHeating demandLagged valueRegression modeljournal article2025-07-222352-4847